Implosion Yibitse Amatafari & Mortars California Daydreams Kanada Imodoka & Amakamyo Ubucuruzi Bwimitungo Itimukanwa Amasoko & Amasoko Abaguzi Inguzanyo Bubble Cryptocurrency Ingufu Federasiyo Amazu Bubble Uburayi 2 Ifaranga no guta agaciro Ubuyapani Akazi
Nk’uko bigaragara mu mpapuro zasohotse buri cyumweru zasohotse uyu munsi, Federasiyo yatakaje umutungo wa miliyari 532 z'amadolari kuva yatangira muri Mata, bituma umutungo wose ugera kuri tiriyari 8.43 z'amadolari, akaba ari yo make kuva muri Nzeri 2021. Ugereranije n'impapuro zerekana ko ukwezi gushize (kurekurwa ku ya 5 Mutarama), umutungo wose wagabanutseho miliyari 74 z'amadolari.
Kuva mu ntangiriro za Kamena, Federasiyo yari ifite mu Isanduku ya Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika yagabanutseho miliyari 374 z'amadorari igera kuri tiriyari 5.34 z'amadolari, urwego rwo hasi cyane kuva muri Nzeri 2021. Mu kwezi gushize, Federasiyo yari ifite mu Isanduku ya Amerika yagabanutseho miliyari 60.4 z'amadolari, hejuru ya miliyari 60 z'amadorari.
Amafaranga yimari yububiko hamwe na bonds byanditswe kurupapuro ruringaniza hagati no mu mpera zukwezi, mugihe Fed yakiriye agaciro kabo mumaso. Igihe ntarengwa cyo kugaruka ni miliyari 60 z'amadolari.
Kuva aho impinga igeze, Fed yagabanije miliyari 115 z'amadorali yari ifite muri MBS, harimo miliyari 17 z'amadolari mu kwezi gushize, bituma impapuro zerekana ko amafaranga asigaye agera kuri tiriyari 2.62.
Amafaranga yose ya MBS yakuyeho impapuro zingana buri kwezi kuva QT yatangira yari munsi ya miliyari 35 z'amadolari.
MBS ibura ku mpapuro zerekana ko ahanini ari umurimo wo kwishyura binyuze mu kwishura amafaranga abafite bose bahabwa iyo bishyuye inguzanyo, nko kongera inguzanyo cyangwa kugurisha inzu yatanzweho ingwate, hamwe no kwishyura bisanzwe.
Kubera ko igipimo cy’inguzanyo cyazamutse kiva kuri 3% kigera kuri 6%, abantu baracyishyura inguzanyo, ariko inguzanyo z’inguzanyo zaragabanutse, kugurisha amazu byagabanutse, kandi uburyo bwo kwishyura binyuze mu kwishyura byacitse.
Ihererekanyabubasha ryibanze rigabanya amafaranga asigaye ya MBS, nkuko bigaragazwa na zigzag kumanuka mu mbonerahamwe ikurikira.
Umurongo uzamuka ku mbonerahamwe watangiye igihe Fed yari ikigura MBS, ariko hagati muri Nzeri iyi myanda yanduye yarahagaritswe burundu kandi umurongo uzamuka ku mbonerahamwe urazimira.
Turacyategereje icyerekezo icyo ari cyo cyose cyatanzwe na Federasiyo ko gitekereza cyane kugurisha MBS burundu kugirango igipimo cy’ukwezi kigera kuri miliyari 35 z'amadolari. Ku kigero kiriho, yagomba kugurisha hagati ya miliyari 15 na miliyari 20 z'amadorari ku kwezi kugira ngo agere ku ntego. Ba guverineri benshi ba Federasiyo bavuze ko amaherezo Fed ishobora kwimukira muri icyo cyerekezo.
Menyako mu mbonerahamwe iri hejuru ko muri 2019 na 2020, MBS yavuye ku gipimo kiri hejuru y’igisenge kuko igipimo cy’inguzanyo cyagabanutse, bituma hiyongeraho inguzanyo n’igurisha ry’amazu. QT-1 yarangiye muri Nyakanga 2019 ariko MBS yakomeje kugabanuka kugeza muri Gashyantare 2020 ubwo Fed yasimburizaga mu Isanduku ya Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika maze impapuro zayo zitangira kongera kuzamuka muri Kanama 2019 nk'uko bigaragara ku mbonerahamwe iri hejuru.
Fed yavuze inshuro nyinshi ko idashaka kugira MBS ku rupapuro ruringaniza, igice kubera ko amafaranga yinjira atateganijwe kandi ataringaniye ku buryo bigora politiki y’ifaranga, naho igice kubera ko kugira MBS byagoreka abikorera umwenda (umwenda w’amazu) kuruta ubundi bwoko bw'imyenda y'abikorera. Niyo mpamvu dushobora guhita tubona ibiganiro bikomeye bijyanye no kugurisha mu buryo butaziguye MBS.
Amafaranga atagabanijwe yagabanutseho miliyari 3 z'amadolari y'uku kwezi, agabanukaho miliyari 45 z'amadolari kuva ku gipimo cyo mu Gushyingo 2021 agera kuri miliyari 311.
Ibi ni ibiki? Ku mpapuro zaguzwe na Banki nkuru y’igihugu ku isoko rya kabiri, iyo umusaruro w’isoko uri munsi y’igipimo cya coupon y’imigabane, Banki nkuru y’igihugu, kimwe n’abandi bose, igomba kwishyura “premium” irenze agaciro k’isura. Ariko iyo inkwano zikuze, Fed, kimwe nabandi bose, ihembwa agaciro keza. Muyandi magambo, muguhana amafaranga arenze ku isoko yo kwishyura, hazabaho igihombo kinini kumafaranga menshi mugihe ingwate izaba ikuze.
Aho kwandika igihombo kinini mugihe ingwate ikuze, Federasiyo igabanya premium mugihe gito cyiyongera buri cyumweru mubuzima bwinguzanyo. Fed ibika premium isigaye kuri konti itandukanye.
Guhinduranya banki nkuru. Fed imaze igihe kinini ihinduranya imirongo hamwe nandi mabanki akomeye aho banki nkuru zishobora kuvunjisha ifaranga ryayo hamwe na Federasiyo kumadolari binyuze mu guhinduranya bikuze mugihe cyagenwe (vuga iminsi 7), nyuma yuko Fed igarura amafaranga yabo. amadolari, n'indi banki nkuru ikuramo ifaranga ryayo. Kuri ubu hari miliyoni 427 z'amadolari yo kugurisha bidasanzwe (hamwe n'inyuguti ya M):
“Inguzanyo shingiro” - Idirishya ryo kugabanuka. Nyuma y’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ejo, Fed yishyuye amabanki 4.75% ku mwaka yo kuguriza muri “idirishya ryo kugabanya”. Ni amafaranga rero ahenze kuri banki. Niba bashobora gukurura abizigama, barashobora kuguza amafaranga bihendutse. Gukenera rero kuguza mumadirishya yagabanutse kubiciro nkibi biratangaje.
Inguzanyo y'ibanze yatangiye kwiyongera hashize hafi umwaka, igera kuri miliyari 10 z'amadolari mu mpera z'Ugushyingo 2021, kugeza na n'ubu. Hagati muri Mutarama, Banki nkuru y’igihugu ya New York yasohoye inyandiko yanditse ku rubuga rwa interineti yise “Iterambere rya vuba mu gutanga inguzanyo.” Ntiyigeze ayita amazina, ariko yasabye ko amabanki mato mato yegereye idirishya ryagabanijwe kandi ko kugabanya umubare bishobora kuba byaragabanije by'agateganyo imyanya yabo.
Ariko kuguza mu idirishya ryagabanutse kuva mu Gushyingo kandi bihagaze kuri miliyari 4.7 z'amadolari uyu munsi. Kurikiza gusa:
Ububiko bukomeye bwa Federasiyo ni imashini ikora amafaranga. Biracyahari, ariko umwaka ushize byatangiye kwishyura inyungu nyinshi - kuko byatangiye kuzamura igipimo - ku mafaranga banki zashyize muri Fed (“ububiko”) kandi ahanini amafaranga y’isoko ry’amafaranga ya Treasury binyuze mu masezerano yo kugura ibicuruzwa (RRP). Kuva muri Nzeri, Fed yatangiye kwishyura inyungu nyinshi ku bubiko na RRP kuruta ku mpapuro zayo bwite.
Fed yatakaje miliyari 18.8 z'amadolari kuva muri Nzeri kugeza ku ya 31 Ukuboza, ariko yunguka miliyari 78 z'amadolari kuva Mutarama kugeza Kanama, bityo ikomeza kwinjiza miliyari 58.4 z'amadolari y'umwaka wose. Mu kwezi gushize, yatangaje ko yimuye miliyari 78 z'amadolari y’Amerika mu Isanduku ya Amerika muri Kanama, ibyo bikaba byasabwe na Banki nkuru y’igihugu.
Amafaranga yoherejwe yatangiye gutakaza igihombo muri Nzeri arahagarikwa. Fed ikurikirana ibyo bihombo buri cyumweru kuri konti yitwa Transfers of Revenue muri Treasury ya Amerika.
Ariko ntugire ikibazo. Banki nkuru y’igihugu ishyiraho amafaranga yayo, ntizigera ibura amafaranga, ntizigera ihomba, kandi icyo gukora ibyo bihombo ni ikibazo cy’ibaruramari. Ibi birashobora gukemurwa no gufata igihombo nkumutungo watinze no kubishyira kuri konti yuburyozwe "Kwimura amafaranga yishyurwa mu isanduku ya Amerika".
Kubera ko igihombo cya konti yuburyozwe cyari giteganijwe, konte shingiro yose ntiyahindutse hafi miliyari 41 z'amadolari. Muyandi magambo, igihombo ntikuraho imari shingiro ya Fed.
Gukunda gusoma UMUHANDA W'IMBORO kandi ushaka kubishyigikira? Urashobora gutanga. Ndashima. Kanda Byeri & Iced Icyayi Mugs kugirango umenye uko:
Rero, hafi tiriyoni 3,5 z'amadolari. Mubyukuri, ntabwo nshaka kuvuga gusebanya cyangwa gusebanya. Barenze ibyo nari niteze mu mwaka ushize.
Muri rusange, imbonerahamwe y "umutungo" yerekana mubyukuri ikintu cyose gisa nimbaraga cyangwa kugenzura ubukungu bwamerika cyangwa ibyabaye?
Gushiraho ifaranga (igipimo cy "amafaranga" n'umutungo nyawo) kugirango "ugarure" ibiza mbere (kandi bikurikiranye) ntabwo ari inzira yo gutsinda, ahubwo ni amateka y’indwara.
Ibyo witeze ni bike. Mugihe isoko ryimigabane ryongeye kugaruza byinshi mubihombo kandi rikongera kuba igicucu kinini, wagira ngo bashaka kugabanya impapuro zabo zingana vuba, ariko ndatekereza ko ikibazo hano ari uko badashobora guta imishahara yabo badafashe igihombo. gutakaza ameza. Kubwibyo, Fed igomba kubanza gukumira ifaranga no kugabanya inyungu zinyungu, hanyuma igasesa urupapuro rwerekana umuvuduko mwinshi.
Igitekerezo cyanjye nuko Federasiyo yiteguye kuzamura ibiciro kugirango igabanye ifaranga kuko ryangiza ubukungu nyabwo, ariko ntishaka kugurisha umutungo kuko rizakuraho inkunga yisoko, ribabaza inshuti zabo zose zikize mumifuka. Nyuma ya byose, Fed ni agatsiko k'abanyamabanki gusa. Ntabwo bitaye ku muntu uwo ari we wese uretse bo ubwabo.
Ntabwo nemeranya nigitekerezo cyawe, byibuze muburyo bwacyo bwemeza, ariko kirerekana urujijo rushimishije. Nko muri kazino, kazino igomba kwemerera umukinnyi kwakira agaciro runaka. Inzu ifite amahirwe yo gufata agaciro kose, ariko umukino urarangiye. Kuri njye, Fed ntabwo yikunda nkabanyamabanki. Kimwe n'umuntu utari muri club, nungukiye cyane muri iyi gahunda y'inguzanyo n'amafaranga, nubwo imyaka mirongo n'ibihe.
Kwiyongera kwinshi (QT) kwa MBS biratinda cyane kuburyo bituma habaho gushishikaza mu buryo butaziguye kuko amafaranga afite MBS ashobora gutanga inguzanyo kubuntu cyangwa kugura byimazeyo.
Ibi ntabwo ari "gushishikaza mu buryo butaziguye". Bikurura gusa buhoro. Ariko iracyakurura.
Abantu bose basa nkaho bashaka urwitwazo rwo gutakaza amafaranga kumasoko y'idubu. Ubu ni igihe cyo kongera gusoma Memoire ya Stock Manipulator ku izina ry'irihimbano rya Edwin Lefevre, mu byukuri ni Jesse Livermore, wibeshya. Nta cyahindutse. Isoko ryimigabane rirasa neza.
Noneho ndabona ikirundo cy'ibiceri bya zahabu, amasuka na vatiri yanditseho "Harry Houndstooth Hauling Company" yanditse kuruhande.
Ubushishozi bugufi isoko. Nibisubiramo twategereje kandi igihe kirageze cyo gukandagira gaze.
SQQQ yageze hejuru, SRTY ihanze, hanyuma SPXU na SDOW amaherezo bamenya (nkuko Wile E. Coyote yaguye kumusozi) ko hari kugwa gukomeye imbere yacu.
Ubucuruzi bwa Algorithmic bwabaye ingorabahizi, hamwe nubushobozi bwo gukurikirana umwanya muremure kandi muto. Bakoresha kugurisha kugurisha no kugura bibaho kumuvuduko wumucyo kugirango bamenye aho bashobora kujyana isoko, bitera ububabare bukabije kubashoramari basanzwe. Kurugero, hagarika igihombo kubigega bigufi byamasosiyete yahombye, ikora impuzandengo yimuka, Fibonacci, ingano yuburemere buringaniye, nibindi. Abantu bafite ibyo bikorwa byubucuruzi bwa algorithmic nitsinda ryindobanure kandi haribishoboka kwiharira no gufatanya na benshi isoko ryimigabane. Iyi ni imwe mu mpamvu zituma isoko yidubu izamara igihe kirekire. Federasiyo. ikigega ntigishobora kugera kubintu bimwe na bimwe bya software byizewe byita ku mpinduka zose z’ubukungu (nkuko byavuzwe haruguru) kugirango zibare imibare ku nyungu zinyuranye zinjira / igihe kugira ngo zigere ku ntego zazo - vuga 2% ifaranga. Algorithms irashobora guhanuka nyuma yumwaka ugerageza kumva uburyo bwo kubikora
Nta mwanya muremure cyangwa muto. Fata umwanya wa zahabu ariko ugurishe kare cyane ku ya 28 Ukuboza 2022. Iyo nza kuba mugufi, nashyizeho ibi nkumuburo kubagurisha bugufi.
Ndateganya ko CPI yo muri Amerika izaba hejuru gato muri Mutarama kuruta mu Kuboza. Muri Kanada, CPI yari hejuru cyane muri Mutarama kuruta mu Kuboza. Kubera ko umubare wa CPI uzamuka ukwezi ukwezi, nagira imyanya minini mito muntangiriro za Mutarama cyangwa nkicwa.
Ndabyemera rwose. kunda iki gitabo. Nyuma yo kugurisha amahitamo yose ya Tesla mukuboza, ndetse naguze amahitamo make ya Tesla ntegereje igiterane. Noneho gura Nzeri / Mutarama wongere ushire - Nvidia, Apple, Msft, nibindi. Reka twizere ko icyiciro gikurikira gikaze kandi kirekire nkandi masoko yidubu.
“Nagurishije ibyo nshoboye byose. Hanyuma imigabane irongera irazamuka, kurwego rwo hejuru rwose. Byarandangije. Nari mvuze ukuri kandi naribeshye.
Nkuko byavuzwe, Edwin Lefebvre numwanditsi nyawe winkingi. Yabajije Jesse Livermore yandika iki gitabo ashingiye kuri icyo kiganiro. Livermore afite kandi igitabo yanditse ubwe, ariko sinshobora kwibuka umutwe. Ntabwo rwose ari umwanditsi wabigize umwuga, kandi birerekana.
Numvise ibiganiro bimwe, harimo na Lacey Hunt, bisa nkaho byerekana ko bishoboka.
Sinshaka. Kugeza ubu amabanki aragerageza gukurura amafaranga menshi no kwagura itangwa ryayo, cyane cyane mugurisha ibyemezo byubucuruzi kubakiriya bashya aho gutanga ibiciro biri hejuru kubakiriya basanzwe (baracyishyura umusoro w'ubudahemuka). Amabanki yagize umwanya uhagije wo gukusanya ubu bwoko bwamafaranga menshi, kandi barabikora. Iyo ndebye kuri CD ya brokerage kubicuruzwa, ndabibona kuri konte yanjye ya brokerage hamwe ninyungu ya 4.5% kugeza 5%. Ubu amabanki arihutira kubitsa. Hariho amafaranga menshi mumafaranga yisoko ryamafaranga, kandi niba banki zitanze ibiciro biri hejuru, bazahatira amwe mumafaranga kuva mumafaranga yisoko ryamafaranga akajya kuri CD na konti yo kuzigama. Amabanki ntashaka gukora ibi kuko byongera ikiguzi cyinkunga kandi agashyiraho igitutu kumpera, ariko barabikora.
Yakomeje agira ati: “Turacyategereje ikimenyetso icyo ari cyo cyose cyatanzwe na Federasiyo ko gitekereza cyane kugurisha MBS mu buryo bweruye kugira ngo izamuke igere kuri miliyari 35 z'amadolari ku kwezi. Ku gipimo kiriho, igomba kugurisha hagati ya miliyari 15 na miliyari 20 z'amadorari ku kwezi. ba guverineri benshi ba Federasiyo bavuze ko amaherezo Fed ishobora kwimukira muri icyo cyerekezo. ”
Nkuko nsuzuguye Pow Pow, nzabaha inguzanyo niba bashobora kuyitangira. Turizera ko ibyo rwose bizagira ingaruka ku igabanuka ry’ibiciro byamazu kandi byihutisha umuvuduko uriho wo kugabanuka kw'ibiciro. Ikibazo ni ukubera iki bategereje igihe kinini kugirango batangire? Ntabwo Fed ishobora gutangira kugurisha MBS, wenda mubwinshi, icyarimwe QT itangira? Nzi ko baretse bikayobora inzira yacyo, ariko niba mubyukuri badakunda kugira MBS mubitabo byabo, ushobora gutekereza ko kuzamura + kugurisha icyarimwe byaba igisubizo cyiza.
Phoenix_Ikki, birangoye kumenya umubare MBS Fed yari ifite mbere ya 2006-2009. Fed ifite umutungo? Niba Fed itigeze igira MBS mu bihe byashize kandi isoko ry'inguzanyo rikaba ryarazamutse, kuki kugurisha kwa Federasiyo ya MBS ubu bigira ingaruka mbi ku gipimo cy'inguzanyo no ku isoko ry'amazu?
Bahitamo umwenda wamazu kumadeni atateganijwe. Baguze kandi amasosiyete asanzwe / yubusa, nubwo ari make, nayo yaguye hanze yinshingano za manda. Ntabwo kandi ari "ihagarikwa rya mkt kurwego rwa comptabilite ya mkt."
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-28-2023